The Copernicus Institute is forecasting a climate phenomenon of exceptionally intense strength by the end of the year.
The Global Impact of El Niño
Experts from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimate an 80% probability that this episode will officially begin between June and August 2026, with the risk that it could become unprecedented. “The odds are strongly tilted toward a moderate to strong episode, or likely strong to potentially unprecedented at this stage,” said the director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
This natural climate phenomenon occurs cyclically every two to seven years. It is characterized by a rapid and abnormal rise in surface water temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. By disrupting atmospheric circulation, El Niño triggers a powerful domino effect across global climate for several months. It typically translates into deep disruptions, ranging from severe droughts in parts of the world, such as Indonesia, to torrential rains in others, notably Peru.
Alarming Temperature Forecasts
For the period from May to July 2026, the WMO expects temperatures to run above seasonal norms across terrestrial surfaces. A particularly pronounced thermal signal in the southern United States, Central America, the Caribbean, as well as Europe and North Africa. Recent history shows that the last major El Niño episode, in 2023-2024, had already propelled those two years into the ranks of the hottest on record globally.
These natural cycles are now unfolding in a context of long-term global warming. In this regard, May 2026 has already ranked as the second-warmest May in history, registering 1.42°C above the preindustrial era. According to scientists, early heat waves and recent extreme weather events experienced in Europe are no longer mere exceptions but are becoming the new climate norm.
