According to Allianz Research, the heat waves of the summer of 2026 could represent 113 billion euros of lost production across 30 European countries. This is an economic estimate, not a tally of damages already recorded. With losses estimated at 20.1 billion euros, France ranks third, behind Italy and Germany.
What to take away
- Allianz Research estimates the impact of heatwaves on European GDP at 113 billion euros in 2026.
- For France, the estimate reaches 20.1 billion euros.
- Protecting workers and adapting buildings can limit the effects of future heatwaves.
Heatwave 2026: France among the most affected countries
To establish its estimate, Allianz Research studied, in each country, the five-day period during which heat exposure was the most intense between June and August. Its model accounts for temperature, humidity and population distribution. It then assesses the potential impact on annual growth.
Italy shows the highest estimated loss, at 27.8 billion euros. Germany follows with 25 billion, then France with 20.1 billion. Together, these three countries account for nearly two-thirds of the losses calculated by Allianz Research.
Heat weighing on work and daily life
Heat can slow activity without directly damaging a building or a machine. Exposed workers may need longer breaks, work more slowly, or be absent. The report does not separately quantify losses in agriculture, tourism, or transportation for 2026.
Cooling off can also raise electricity consumption for households and businesses. The bill tied to air conditioning depends, among other factors, on the type of device, the insulation of the home, and its duration of use. This incremental cost should not be confused with the 113 billion euro estimate, which concerns economic production.
How can we better adapt to future heatwaves?
Adjusting work schedules and conditions, shielding windows from sun, and improving summer comfort in buildings are all options. In cities, shade and vegetation can also help reduce overheating. The greening of condominium complexes is part of the solutions to study depending on the layout of the space and water needs.
The challenge goes beyond the summer 2026 bill. A European Commission-commissioned study estimates the EU’s adaptation needs at around 70 billion euros per year through 2050. Preparing homes, workplaces, and cities thus becomes a question of health as much as an economic issue.
It is the economic research team of the Allianz group. It studies, among other things, climate-related risks. Its figure of 113 billion euros is an estimate based on a model, and not a tally of losses already recorded.
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