Amid declining birth rates, rising life expectancy, and the growing role of migration, the statistical institute sketches the contours of a country undergoing profound transformation.
France’s population would peak before beginning to decline
On June 8, 2026, INSEE published an updated set of demographic projections to 2070. This exercise, which is not a forecast but a simulation based on various assumptions, allows us to anticipate the major population trends in France over the coming decades. The finding is striking: for the first time since World War II, outside exceptional periods, the population of metropolitan France and its overseas territories could decline sustainably during the 21st century.
In INSEE’s central scenario, France would have 65.9 million people in 2070. This would represent a drop of 3.2 million people from 2026. The population would nevertheless continue to grow for about ten years. It would reach a maximum of 69.8 million inhabitants in 2037 before entering a phase of decline. This trend is explained by a phenomenon unseen in the country’s recent history: natural decrease. Since 2025, deaths have outnumbered births.
During the early years, population growth would be sustained solely by migration. However, from 2037 onward, the net migration balance would no longer be enough to offset the natural deficit, causing the total number of inhabitants to gradually decline.
Even in INSEE’s most favorable assumptions, the demographic dynamics appear markedly less buoyant than in previous decades. The continued growth of the population, long deemed assured, no longer constitutes the reference scenario.
An Aging Population Becomes Inevitable
While the overall decline in the number of inhabitants remains subject to some uncertainties, the aging of the population appears almost certain. By 2070, the number of people aged 65 and over would rise by 5.8 million. The growth would be especially pronounced among the oldest cohorts. People aged 80 and over would number 4.6 million more than today. As for centenarians, their numbers could quadruple.
At the same time, younger generations would shrink significantly. The number of people under 45 would fall by 8.9 million over the period. This transformation would profoundly alter the balance between workers and retirees. In 2026, France has about 40 people aged 65 or older for every 100 people aged 20–64. That ratio would reach 49 per 100 in 2040 and 62 per 100 in 2070 in the central scenario.
These trends raise major challenges for financing social protection, organizing the health care system, meeting the need for suitable housing, and supporting dependence.
Fertility, Mortality, and Migration: Three Drivers of Demography
INSEE’s demographic projections rest on three fundamental variables: fertility, mortality, and migration. Regarding fertility, demographers had to incorporate a decline much faster than anticipated in the previous exercise published in 2021. In 2025, the near-term fertility indicator fell to 1.56 children per woman. For its new projections, INSEE uses a target level of 1.45 children per woman in its central scenario.
Life expectancy would continue to rise in tandem. However, gains would be more modest than those seen in the 20th century. This improvement mechanically contributes to the aging of the population.
Finally, migration plays a decisive role. INSEE has assumed an annual net migration balance of 150,000 people in its central scenario. This level is well above what was used in previous projections. Nevertheless, migrant inflows would not be enough to prevent long-term population decline.
The institute notes, however, that these assumptions are not certainties. They simply allow exploring plausible trajectories based on current trends.
Significant Variation Depending on INSEE’s Assumptions
One of the key findings of the study is the extent of possible variation between different scenarios. Depending on fertility and migration assumptions, France’s population could swing significantly by 2070. INSEE estimates it could range from 61 million to 71 million inhabitants.
The most favorable scenarios rely on higher fertility or a net migration balance higher than the central assumptions. Conversely, a continued sharp decline in births or weaker migration would intensify the demographic decline.
However, even in the most optimistic scenarios, the age structure of the population would continue to evolve. The rise in the number of seniors remains, in fact, a phenomenon largely already baked into the current age pyramid.
These projections thus sketch a future where the question is no longer merely about the number of inhabitants, but also about their age distribution. Behind the numbers, a demographic shift looms that will permanently shape the economy, public policy, and the organization of French society in the coming decades.
